December, 2010

The Japanese economy released today data concerning the preliminary industrial production index and the preliminary annual industrial production index for the month of October, where the monthly industrial production index showed an actual reading of  -1.8% compared to the previous reading of -1.6% however forecasts were referring to a value of -3.2%. As for the Annual industrial production index the actual reading came at a value of 4.5% compared to the previous reading of 11.5% where it was forecasted to be at a value of 3.1%.

The Japanese economy released today data concerning the preliminary industrial production index and the preliminary annual industrial production index for the month of October, where the monthly industrial production index showed an actual reading of  -1.8% compared to the previous reading of -1.6% however forecasts were referring to a value of -3.2%. As for the Annual industrial production index the actual reading came at a value of 4.5% compared to the previous reading of 11.5% where it was forecasted to be at a value of 3.1%.

The Japanese economy released today data concerning the preliminary industrial production index and the preliminary annual industrial production index for the month of October, where the monthly industrial production index showed an actual reading of  -1.8% compared to the previous reading of -1.6% however forecasts were referring to a value of -3.2%. As for the Annual industrial production index the actual reading came at a value of 4.5% compared to the previous reading of 11.5% where it was forecasted to be at a value of 3.1%.

The Japanese economy released today data concerning the preliminary industrial production index and the preliminary annual industrial production index for the month of October, where the monthly industrial production index showed an actual reading of  -1.8% compared to the previous reading of -1.6% however forecasts were referring to a value of -3.2%. As for the Annual industrial production index the actual reading came at a value of 4.5% compared to the previous reading of 11.5% where it was forecasted to be at a value of 3.1%.

The Fed's lucky streak of luring bond investors with low interest rates may be drawing to a close. Nevertheless, the extended period of low borrowing costs has bred a new breed of investor. To the bulls and bears, we can now add the ostriches – those who bury their heads in the sand of declining debt service ratios while refusing to face up to intractable levels of total US government debt. If these ostriches were to actually look at the numbers, they would realize that it is their investments which are made of sand.   As the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the US government has enjoyed the benefits of low interest rates despite its inflationary practices. When we run a trade deficit with a country like China, they have a strong incentive to 'recycle' the deficit back into our dollars and Treasuries. This practice has hidden what would otherwise be much higher borrowing costs and much lower purchasing power for...

The commodities currencies are still underpinned by the market expectations of demand rising next year amid the USadopted easing policies which are not expected to be end soon supported by the Chinese decision of lowering its exports of the rare metals. The Canadian dollar has reached parity with the greenback while the Aussi is trading above 1.015 currently. The demand for oil also is widely expected to rise from another side because of the bad cold weather in US, Europeand even in Chinawhich watched degrees below -30 this year. The oil is looking targeting 100$ a barrel in the beginning of next year and the market eyes are now at US inventories data which will be released today after last week decreasing of the crude inventories by 5.3m barrels while they were forecasted to have just 1.1m barrels of declining which is still giving a potential high outlook of the prices. The copper is also at its all times high...

The commodities currency could find strong demand by the year end on increased market expectations of greater demand for them amid the USadopted easing policy which is not expected to be end soon supported by the Chinese decision of lowering its exports of the rare metals. The Canadian dollar has reached parity with the greenback while the Aussi is trading above 1.013 currently. The demand for oil also is widely expected to rise from another side because of the bad cold weather in US, Europeand even in Chinawhich watched degrees below -30 this year. The oil is looking targeting 100$ a barrel in the beginning of next year and the market eyes are now at US inventories data after last week decreasing of the crude inventories by 5.3m barrels while they were forecasted to have just 1.1m barrels of declining which is still giving a potential high outlook of the prices. The copper is also at its all times high...

Figure 1 is borrowed from our paper on productivity [1]. It presents the case of Turkey. This is a difficult example with the rate of productivity growth oscillating since 1980. Since the measured time series is smoothed with MA(3), actual oscillation is even more prominent. Such a behavior is a nightmare for the mainstream models based on capital, labor and multifactor productivity. As a rule, the multifactor productivity has to resemble observations and severe “shocks” to productivity are introduced. This is a lucky hour for an economist – millions of factors to explain these shocks. In reality, the number of explanations is steadily approaching the number of economists involved. At the end of the day, all mainstream models are able to explain only “stylised facts”. This is a euphemism of “failure”.   Our model uses only one variable – real GDP per capita. The intuition behind the model is almost banal. A developed economy is characterized by a constant speed of...

The Single currency could find buying in very quite sessions after breaking above 1.317 versus the greenback and it is trading above 1.32 currently helped by light volumes in thin trading sessions to correct some of its recent loses by the year end as technically the light volume helping the profit taken but the market sentiment is still looking unchanged after shrugging off the China's decision of hiking the interest rate 25 basis points as it looked pricing in the market but after the Asian stocks market were mixed in the beginning of the week after the Christmas decision, they came under pressure today but the European equities markets are still looking unfazed of these loses trading very quite with no materialized change of the risk appetite. The Chinese decision was the second in the recent 3 months after it had requested from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for...

BEIJING (Reuters) - China made fresh assurances that it will keep inflation in check, saying it will improve efforts to stabilize prices and ensure an abundant supply of essential commodities ahead of the Chinese New Year. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday that China's government will be able to keep prices at a reasonable level, a day after the central bank raised interest rates for a second time in just over two months to counter stubbornly high inflation. Cracking down on price speculation and related market manipulation should be high on the agenda of governments at all levels, Xinhua news agency said late on Sunday, citing a circular issued jointly by the General Offices of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council, or China's Cabinet. The circular also urged tighter supervision of the food and medicine markets and called on related departments to distribute subsidies to low-income groups. China will maintain its crackdown on price speculation in 2011, focusing...